Forecasting analysis on climate change and its impact on paddy production in Kota Bharu

Agriculture serve as the backbone of Kelantan economy especially paddy cultivation. However, climate change might affect paddy growth and eventually affect Kota Bharu total paddy production. Therefore, this research provides will an overview on the trend of rainfall, temperature and humidity events in Kota Bharu from year 2004 until 2014 during monsoon season. Classical Decomposition and Holt-Winter's Trend Seasonality model were used to forecast the potential climate change for approximately two years of data set by identifies the potential extreme events such as flash flood and drought. Relationship between paddy production and climate variable were identified. The statistical significant results show that a strong correlations relationship between rainfall precipitation and paddy production. The evidence from this study may be useful for policymakers to facilitate immediate adaptation strategies.